End Of February Pattern Update

Written by on February 14, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Cold And Stormy Pattern To Close Out February

 

How far does the nat gas and heating markets want to look ahead?  If they are near sighted, they will see cold and snow into early next week and then several days of much milder weather for the highest use states of the northern US.  If they fail to look out beyond the warm up they are likely going to be in for a rude surprise.  We have been forecasting for some time the likely return of cold and snow to the northern US.  We continue to see it that way and this mornings forecast data is singing the same tune.  Just as temperatures warm into the 50s over the Midwest and Northeast late next week, a fresh Canadian blast will be ripping through the northern Plains.  This very likely will lead to the development of a strong springlike storm with severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and snow squalls and extremely cold air to follow.  This will bring a return to strong nat gas and heating demand across the northern US, which will likely last into the first week of March.  There remains numerous climate and weather signatures that favor the return to a snowy and chilly pattern to the northern US.  Numerous weather systems will be bringing fresh blankets of snow every several days, a few of which could be fairly impressive.  With reserves continuing to dwindle, the coming weather forecasts should be of concern to the markets as the coming warm up will only really last a few days when evaluating it based on the period of time temperatures over the Midwest and Northeast are near or above normal.

 

 

A major storm is becoming likely around the 23rd of February which will end the warm up over the central and eastern US.  The image shows a massive storm over the central US with temperatures shaded.  Extremely cold air is located within the dark blues and purples.  The strong low pressure will pump up mild temeratures ahead of it but draw down very cold Canadian air on the back side into the US.

A major storm is becoming likely around the 23rd of February which will end the warm up over the central and eastern US. The image shows a massive storm over the central US with temperatures shaded. Extremely cold air is located within the dark blues and purples. The strong low pressure will pump up mild temperatures ahead of it but draw down very cold Canadian air on the back side into the US.

 

A massive storm is becoming more likely around the 23rd of February.  This will bring strong thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and very cold air after passes.  The image shows 12 hour precipitaton amounts on Feb 23rd.  We don't expect to play out exactly like this, just the pattern favors a strong storm tracking through in some fashion.

A massive storm is becoming more likely around the 23rd of February. This will bring strong thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and very cold air after passes. The image shows 12 hour precipitaton amounts on Feb 23rd. We don’t expect to play out exactly like this, just the pattern favors a strong storm tracking through in some fashion.

 

Because the coming pattern a week out will allow much milder temperatures to push into the central and eastern US, it will “juice” the atmosphere for thunderstorms as the cold front comes through. The image shows the Thunderstorm potential out 7 days. The thunderstorm area will continue to expand over much of the central and eastern US for days 8 and 9 before very cold air returns to close out the month of February.

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