Overnight Forecast Update

Written by on December 17, 2013 in NatGasWeather - No comments

The overnight forecast models came in and didn’t provide any significant surprises.  The overall pattern will remain quite active over the central and eastern US for quite some time once the cold outbreak pushes through the central and eastern US this weekend.  Numerous weather systems with reinforcing blasts of cold air will continue into New Year’s, keeping natural gas and heating demand above normal for the Midwest, Northeast, and portions of the central US.  One of the biggest uncertainties to the forecast is when a low pressure system will track out of the Southwest and blow up into a decent winter storm after phasing with cold Canadian air over the center of the US.  We knew it would be sometime between the 23rd and the 25th and the latest data supports it being closer to the 23rd with varying degrees of marginal to good phasing. We are not convinced the latest data still is resolving how this unfolds and believe there is still potential for a fairly strong Christmas Eve storm for much of the eastern US.  The overall view remains the same with cool and unsettled weather should provide long term support for natural gas and heating prices, but could sell off near term with the markets waiting to see how the weather pattern unfolds as we expect national forecasts to vary considerably in the coming days.

 

The latest from the overnight forecast models on the storm expected to develop late this weekend into early next week.  It all depends on the timing of a low coming out of the Southwest.  Shading is precipitation amounts in inches as the low storm blows up and rapidly strengthens with aim on the east coast.

The latest from the overnight forecast models on the storm expected to develop late this weekend into early next week. It all depends on the timing of a low coming out of the Southwest. Shading is precipitation as the low storm blows up and rapidly strengthens while taking aim for the east coast. There will be an ugly mess of freezing precipitation north of the low into the Mid-Atlantic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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