Dangerous Polar Blast This Week, But Markets Not Liking What Comes After

Written by on January 28, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

 

 

Monday, January 28: A dangerous polar blast will sweep across the northern and central US the next several days with brutally cold temperatures as lows reach -40°F to -0s, coldest across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast. Chicago is expected to drop into the -20s, with the highs Wednesday likely to only reach the -10s, highlighting the intensity of the coming polar blast. Heating demand will be exceptionally strong Tue-Thu as many record minimums and low maximums are set, aided by lows of teens and 20s pushing into N. Texas, and then across the South-Southeast. There will also be areas of snowfall as the polar front pushes across the Midwest Monday, then increasing across the South, Southeast, and East. Clearly, this is an impressive polar blast and will likely lead to production losses of several bcf/d due to freeze-offs, aiding the bullishness of it. However, the markets simply aren’t going to like what follows Feb 3-7th as upper high pressure rapidly builds in across the southern and eastern US with temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s from Chicago to NYC, with 60s and 70s over the southern US. This will swing national demand back to lighter levels and where the weekend weather data was much milder trending to lose hefty amount of HDD’s/ demand.

Heat signature of the frigid polar blast arriving the next few days.

 

Temperatures will reach dangerously cold levels with the coming polar blast with lows of -40F to 0s for exceptionally strong demand, including wellhead freeze issues to lower production.

 

But the nat gas markets aren’t going to like the mild ridge that follows the polar blast late this weekend and next week where a ton of demand was lost over the weekend.

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