Cooler Trends Continue For This Weekend & Next Week

Written by on July 29, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, July 29:  Aug’20 nat gas futures rallied 7¢ Tuesday, making up Monday’s losses.  Gains were not viewed as being due to hotter trends since Tuesday’s weather data held notably cooler trends for this weekend and next week.  We view yesterday’s rally as potentially being due to expiration of Aug’20 contracts or stronger than expected power burns the past few days from highs of mid-90s over the East Coast.  The overnight weather data trended further cooler for next week with the GFS losing a minor 2 CDD’s but with the European model losing a heftier 7 CDD’s.  Both show stronger cool shots advancing deeper into the northern and east-central US with comfortable highs of 70s and 80s and where more than 15 CDD’s have been shed in recent days.  Much of the overnight data still favors a hotter pattern trying to regain ground August 7-11, although the European model did back off several CDD’s with less heat over the eastern US.  Again, it’s up to hot patterns holding in the weather data and never backing down or it could lead to disappointment.

Cooler trending weather systems for this weekend and next week over the Midwest and east-central US to shed numerous Bcf in demand.

 

The overnight European model lost 6-7 CDD’s on cooler trends for the first 10-days of August. What was once a rather hot pattern for the first week of August has trended less impressively so.

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