Cooler Pattern Arrives This Week to Break Warm Spell

Written by on April 12, 2021 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, April 12: Much of the US will be nice today with widespread highs of 60s to 80s besides locally hotter 90s Southwest and 40s to 50s across the N. Plains as a fresh cold shot begins to arrive out of S. Canada. This system will open the door for a series of unseasonably cool weather systems sweeping across the northern ½ of the US Tue-Sun with chilly lows of 20s and 30s for strong national demand. These systems remain cold enough to maintain a bullish lean through April 21 before cool air fades across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but a full 1-2-days later than the weather data showed late last week and where several HDDs were added. The latest EC is also cold enough April 20-23 across the northeastern US to maintain a bullish lean for April 14-23, while the GFS is closer to seasonal/neutral for April 20-23.

Temperatures vs Normal the Next 7-Days: Cool over most of the US besides the West Coast/Northwest. But highs over Texas and the South will still be rather comfortable with highs of 60s and 70s. It’s the cool Midwest to Northeast that will be the primary driver of strong national demand later this week into next week.


Lows mid-week will be chilly across the northern half of the US for stronger demand.


May’21 gas prices closed flat Friday at $2.52, but only after yet again testing $2.50 earlier in the session and rallying, like prices did all last week. The GFS model gained 5 HDDs over the weekend break, while the European (EC) model gained a little heftier 7-8 HDDs. Both gained demand by seeing cool air lingering longer across the Great Lakes and Northeast April 20-23rd, as was our bias going into the weekend break. It’s important to note the EC a bit colder than the GFS, especially April 20-23rd by seeing more impressive cold shots over the northern US. Of course, this is only after strong demand finally arrives this week to break the very warm spell of the past 3-weeks.

Leave a Comment