Cool Shots N. US Through Next Week, Then Milder

Written by on October 10, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Thursday, October 10:   All overnight weather models lost a little demand for the coming 15-day forecast, including the European model. There remain considerable differences between the GFS and European models where the GFS is 18 HDD’s colder for the coming 15-day forecast, although narrowing the gap slightly compared to previous days. Overall, the GFS would still be considered neutral through Oct 19, while the European model would be viewed as solidly bearish. We expect the markets believe the GFS is too cold. No change bigger picture as a swing to stronger demand remains on track late this week through next week as cold shots sweep across the central and northern US, then bearish October 19-23 as warm high pressure returns across much of the eastern 1/2 of the US.

 

Highs Thursday as a cold shot with rain and snow sweeps through the Rockies and Plains. It’s also a bit hot over potions of Texas as highs reach near 90F in some areas.


 

A strong weather system tracking across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley this weekend.

 

A reinforcing cold shot across the Midwest and Northeast next week to keep modest demand for heating.

 

Graph compares overnight GFS vs European weather data. GFS still has more demand but is viewed as too cold. Both are quite bearish Oct 19-24.

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