Cool Shot East Late This Week & Hot West, But Not Hot or Cold Enough After

Written by on September 28, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

September 28, 2020:  A weather system with heavy showers will track through the central US/Midwest and into the East the next few days with highs of 50s to 70s.  Conditions will be warm over the East Monday ahead of this system with highs of 70s and 80s for light demand.  More importantly, this central US system will open the door for a colder system across the Great Lakes and Northeast late in the week, where lows will drop into the 30s and 40s, locally 20s for a bump in national demand.  Although, this early in the season, HDD’s won’t’ translate to as much heating demand.  Over the West, hot high pressure will strengthen with highs of 80s and 90s becoming widespread, locally 100s over California and the Southwest for late season cooling needs.  This hot West, cool East pattern will last into early next week before high pressure rebounds into the northern US Oct 5-10 as highs of 60s to 80s return.  The European model continues to warm conditions faster than the GFS Oct 5-8 as the GFS tries to bleed cooler air into the northern US a little longer.  Essentially, there are ways cooler air tires to sneakily continue into the northern US Oct 5-8, such as the GFS teases.  But for now, the Oct 5-12 period still isn’t quite hot or cold enough to impress and where the pattern remains bearish biased.

What will this week’s nat gas trade bring after last week’s wild ride?   Weekend weather trends were minor, as were changes in LNG feedgas, albeit a little higher vs last week.  With Oct’20 futures expiration at the close, we look to see if volatility eases in the days after.  Or will Nov’20 taking over at huge 65¢ premium to Oct’20 lead to continued large daily 10¢+ swings?  We expect the latter with big daily swings continuing.

Today’s weather pattern with a weather system into the central US, warm East, and very warm to hot West.

 

A decent cool shot over the Midwest and East last this week, while very warm to hot over the West. The combination will bring a bump in national demand.

 

A bump in national demand is expected late this week through the coming weekend. However, the pattern after for Oct 5-12 just isn’t hot or cold enough to impress and where the data remains to the bearish side.

 

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