Cool Pattern to End, Then Bearish Weather Until Heat Builds

Written by on May 11, 2021 in NatGasWeather - No comments

May 11, 2021:   June’21 nat gas prices closed 3¢ lower Monday at $2.93, aided by the weekend weather data maintaining a light demand pattern for most of the US May 14-24th.  The overnight data was little changed with the GFS gaining a minor 2 TDDs and the European model losing 1 TDD.  However, the European model lost 5 TDDs yesterday afternoon, so it essentially held lost demand and bearish trends from Monday.  No major changes with relatively strong national demand the rest of the work week as colder than normal weather systems bring scattered showers, thunderstorms, and lows of 30s and 40s over the Rockies, Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.  However, showers and cooling will also push into Texas, the South, and Southeast through the coming weekend with comfortable highs of 70s to lower 80s for light demand, offsetting stronger demand over the northern US.  It’s this coming weekend through the following week (May 15-24th) where weather patterns remain rather bearish as the northern US warms into the perfect 70s to lower 80s from Chicago to NYC, while the southern US becomes warm to very warm with highs of 80s to 90s.  However, the coverage and intensity of 90s over the southern US still isn’t expected to be as widespread as needed to intimidate through at least around May 24-26th.  Thereafter is when we expect better opportunity for more intimidating heat to set up across the southern US.  Although, the overnight data failed to look any hotter with it, and yesterday’s EC weeklies showed heat being slow to arrive and not until June.  So, again, the longer it takes for heat to show up in the weather maps, the greater the potential for the nat gas markets to get increasingly impatient waiting.

Cool vs normal pattern for the rest of this work week.


 

Cool northern US temperatures the next several nights as lows drop into the 30s and 40s.


 

A warmer pattern across the northern US this weekend and next week with very nice highs of 70s and 80s. However, getting a touch warm over the southern US with highs of 80s and 90s, but overall not quite hot enough yet to intimidate.


 

Highs this weekend will be quite nice over most of the US with 70s and 80s for light demand.

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