Coldest Pattern So Far This Winter Coming!

Written by on January 10, 2022 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, January 10:   Last Friday the EC trended warmer for Jan 15-23, which we thought was overdone and decent odds it adds demand back over the weekend.  It did as the EC model reversed and trended colder by 20 HDDs over the weekend break, while also forecasting a frigid setup across the northern ½ of the US Jan 21-23, the coldest set up so far this winter.   This led to a gap higher after the weekend break.  Timing wise, strong demand will open the new trading week as a frigid cold shot sweeps across the northern US, including lows of 20s and 30s into portions of the southern US.  A milder break is expected late this week as highs of 40s to 70s gains ground over much of the US.   There will be a mix of cold systems and warmer breaks Jan 15-20 for near seasonal demand.  But most important a rather frosty pattern is expected over the northern 1/2 of the US Jan 21-24 for strong national demand due to widespread lows of -20s to 20s.  The primary question is whether the cold pattern Jan 21-24 holds in upcoming model runs, and if so, will cold extend into Jan 24-26th, which we believe to be likely.  Each new weather model run will be closely watched by the nat gas markets to see if they keep Jan 21-27 cold enough to intimidate.

Strong demand will play out the next two days as a frigid blast covers the northern 1/2 of the US.


A milder break is expected over much of the US Wed-Fri for a swing back to lighter national demand.


A cold pattern is forecast Jan 21-24 as below normal temperatures invade much of the US.


Our Live HDD/CDD data showing swings in demand next 15-days but overall rather cold early this week and again Jan 21-24.

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