Coldest Pattern of the Past Few Years Next 2-Weeks….But

Written by on February 8, 2021 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, February 8:  The coldest pattern of the past few years will play out over the next few weeks as frigid air over the Rockies and Plains releases eastward at times.  However, there are important weather model differences.  The overnight GFS gained nearly 20 HDD’s by seeing stronger cold shots across the US Feb 15-21, which led March’21 prices gaining a few extra cents on top of a few cents they gained at the weekend reopen.  Prices added a few more cents as the overnight European model (EC) trended colder for late this week into next week (Feb 10-16),.  However prices quickly retreated from highs of $2.985 to $2.908 as the EC trended milder for Feb 17-22 by seeing not quite as much cold air across the southern and eastern US compared to previous runs and compared to the GFS.  Both the GFS and EC maintain strong demand this week, very strong demand this weekend into early next week, then easting back to strong Feb 17-22 but with the GFS a bit colder compared to the EC for this period by favoring greater coverage of subfreezing air across the northern and central US.  Overall, the weather data is still the coldest it’s been the past several years but would have been more impressive if the overnight EC hadn’t backed off on the amount of cold for Feb 17-22.  Today’s early morning and midday data will be important to see what kind of weather trends the new data shows and whether the EC is able to trend back colder for Feb 17-22 to better match the GFS.

Strong demand early this week due to widespread cold across the northern 1/2 of the US. It would be more impressive if not for the southern US rather comfortable.


 

Dangerous cold will push down the Plains and across the Midwest late this week. However, warmer trends out ahead of it over the South and Mid-Atlantic have lost a few HDD’s since late last week.


 

Both the GFS and EC are solidly bullish just with the GFS more so Feb 17-22 by seeing stronger cold across the northern US.

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