Colder Trends Over the Weekend Leads to 4% Jump in Nat Gas Prices

Written by on November 4, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, November 4: After the GFS model lost nearly 20 HDD’s over the weekend, it gained a huge 30 HDD’s in its overnight run. The European model added 20 HDD’s over the weekend and trended further colder overnight as well by adding another 10 HDD’s, 30 HDD’s total. The European model is again not quite as cold as the GFS, but they both clearly added demand overnight is the primary point. It’s important to mention the end of the European model run isn’t very cold by Nov 15-16, but big gains in demand occurred before then. The nat gas markets opened 7 cents higher after the weekend break and continued to gain to now up 11 cents, likely aided by both the GFS and European models showing further gains in HDD’s overnight. Much of that colder trend was due to a frigid cold shot pushing deeper into the US Nov 12-14. Of course, today’s mid-day data will be important to see if the GFS and European models are able to hold colder trends.

The two graphs below highlight the colder trends with the European ensemble immediately below and the GFS ensemble two graphs below.

The European ensemble data trended colder the past 24-hours to add 30 HDD’s.


The cold shot for Nov 12-14 has trended notably colder the past 24-hours.

Leave a Comment