Colder Pattern Coming to Finally End 3-Weeks of Bearish Weather

Written by on January 14, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, January 14:  National demand will remain very light for a couple more days as much warmer than normal conditions with highs of 60s to 80s stretches across Texas, the South, and up the Mid-Atlantic Coast, with mild 40s and 50s for major Northeast cities. Frigid Arctic air remains in place across the N. Rockies and Plains for locally strong demand as lows reach the -20s to 20s. A piece of this frigid air will release and track across the Upper Midwest and Northeast Thursday-Friday for a modest swing to stronger national demand. It’s next week when a more impressive cold shot pushes deeper into the US with lows of -10s to 20s sweeping across the eastern half of the country, including 20s and 30s deep into the South and Southeast to aid strong national demand. But where milder trends have occurred is with a break between cold shots across the northern and eastern US Jan 24-26th. However, another rather frigid cold shot is favored to push into the northern US Jan 28-31st, but with important details still in need of refining. Simply put, after extremely bearish conditions of the past three weeks that will result in nearly 300 Bcf in lighter than normal demand, a better pattern is finally on track to arrive Jan 20-31st.  Prices are more than 5 cents higher today and above $2.20, suggesting the markets are finally seeing a cold enough pattern for shorts to want to exit/reduce risk.

A rather warm pattern for the South & East today into Wednesday with highs of 70s and 80s across the southern US, with 40s to 60s for Mid-Atlantic and most major Northeast cities.

 

A strong cold shot is set to arrive early next week for stronger natonal demand.

 

A break between cold shots is favored around Jan 25-26.

 

Another round of cold air is likely into the northern US the last several days of January for a return to strong demand.

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The graphs shows the GFS and European models are rather close on the pattern the next 15-days.

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