Cold vs Normal Next 7-Days. Not Cold Enough After.

Written by on April 14, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, April 14: The overnight weather data was mixed with the GFS model gaining more than 10 HDD’s on colder trends April 21-28th. However, the European model didn’t agree and trended slightly milder, losing 3 HDD’s. This makes the GFS colder than the European model comparatively for April 21-28th. Both are still quite chilly versus normal through the coming weekend but then with cold air retreating into Canada after with mild to warm conditions gaining across most of the country besides the very far North, just with the European model warming the Great Lakes and Northeast quicker. To our view, even with the GFS trending colder overnight, the pattern is likely still considered cold enough the next 7-days but not cold enough for forecast week 2, especially since the overnight European model remained rather bearish with the set up April 21-27th, while suggesting it would remain so through the end of the month.

Colder than normal temperatures this week over much of the US for stronger than normal demand.

 

The pattern for April 21-28 is for weak glancing cool shots across the northern US but mild to warm over the rest of the country with light demand.

 

The HDD/CDD daily forecast from the overnight European model was consistent with cold enough the next 7 days but then not cold enough after.


 

8-15 Day Outlook. Cool over the northeaster US early, then milder. The rest of the US will be milder/warmer than normal.

 

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