Cold To Factor In Weekly Storage Report

Written by on March 5, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Several Cold Blasts Will Lead To Hefty Weekly Draw


The coming weekly draw should be well above normal due to very cold conditions settling in over the northern US for most of the draw period.  The week started with a strong winter storm blowing through with heavy rain and thunderstorms along the cold front and wrap around snowfall into the Midwest with lesser amounts into New England.   After the storm moved out into the Atlantic colder conditions filtered into the central and eastern US over the weekend with numerous weak moisture starved weather systems tracking across.  A more impressive cold blast moved into the US Monday and brought very cold air to the highest use states of the Northeast and Midwest as overnight lows consistently dropped below zero or into the single digits.  Yet another even colder blast of Arctic air pushed into the northern US Wednesday and Thursday and led to temperature anomalies of 20-30°F colder than normal.   The coming draw is expected to bring a -140 to -150 Bcf draw which will put supplies just over 1.1 Tcf.  It would have been greater if cold air was a little more effective at pushing into the Northeast coast, which it struggled to do at times.  Regardless, supplies will further distance from the 5 year average as the draw will be much greater than normal.   With several more weeks of decent draws to be factored in, supplies will certainly drop below 1.0 Tcf and likely next week.  The market seems uninterested in supply numbers or weather conditions of late and it may take a higher than expected draw to find buyers willing to step up after the significant sell off that has occurred of late.




natural gas weather

The draw period started with a strong winter storm moving through the eastern US with heavy showers and storms along the cold front and wrap around snow into the Midwest. Cold air was left in the wake of the storm and led to a week of colder than normal temperatures for much of the US.



The coldest blast of the coming week should occur Monday night into Tuesday as an Arctic air mass pushes through the Midwest with brutally cold temperatures.  It will also be this blast that pushes the furherst into the Southeast as a hard freeze pushes toward the Gulf states.  The image shows temperatures in Celsius a few thousand feet off the ground.  Dark blues and purples are really cold, Reds to yellows represent extreme cold.

A fresh cold blast Monday night into Tuesday brought an Arctic air mass through the Midwest with veryy cold temperatures. It also pushed fairly deep into the Southeast with a hard freeze into the Gulf states. The image shows temperatures in Celsius a few thousand feet off the ground. Dark blues and purples are really cold, Reds to yellows represent extreme cold.



natural gas weather

Wednesday morning temperatures were quite cold across all of the northern US as lows dropped well below zero over the Midwest and into the portion of the Northeast. Once this cold sets up it held the rest of the draw period as reinforcing cold blast tracked across the Great Lakes and Northeast Thursday of last week.


natural gas weather

Lows all week were quite cold and got colder as the week progressed over the Northeast. The image shows Monday and Friday lows which were well below normal over the Northeast and Midwest but intensified as the week progressed.


weekly anomaly

Temperature and temperature anomalies for the week were quite impressive as cold air sat over the northern US much of the week covered by the draw period.  Average highs were well below freezing over the Midwest and Northeast and that led week long temperature anomalies of 10-20 colder than normal over the Midwest and Great Lakes but lesser intensity toward the Northeast coast.






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