Cold Next Week, But Prices Lower As Pattern After Trends Milder

Written by on February 13, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments


 
Wednesday, February 13:   Front month futures contracts gained yesterday as the mid-day GFS trended colder, then sold off after hours once the European model didn’t agree and trended milder. The overnight GFS proved to be the loser, trending notably milder by finally seeing a stronger/milder ridge over the East Feb 22-26th, one that the European model was already locking onto Tuesday. The data is still very cold versus normal for much of the country this weekend through next week, it’s just the pattern after isn’t cold enough over the East as mild high pressure builds in. Prices dropped sharply as soon as the overnight GFS showed milder trends. The image shows how the GFS ensemble data trended much milder last night and early this morning with the light blue and green lines showing daily forecast HDD’s dropping considerably compared to Tuesday.

Graph showing the GFS ensemble data trend notably milder overnight and early Wed morning.

Milder break over the East Feb 21-26 and where the data is now not cold enough with the GFS trending milder overnight and early this morning.

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