Cold Early February Pattern Still On Track

Written by on January 24, 2018 in NatGasWeather - No comments
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Wednesday:  The graph below shows GFS Ensemble forecasted Total Degree Days (Heating + Cooling) for the next 16 days. There are several notable swings in demand through Feb 1st, but remaining near to slightly milder than normal when compared to the 30-year average (dashed line). But note how they increase above normal Feb 1-8th as frigid air pours into the US.  The overnight data was a little milder and shows a break around Feb 5-6, seen as the black line (most recent run) dipping under the previous forecast runs.  Although, the data is colder before and after.   The graph highlights a cold back-weighted forecast, but with much uncertainty in regards to details that far out that will lead to flip-flops in terms of forecasted heating demand in the days ahead, leading to sharp price swings.  These graphs of forecasted HDD+CDD are updated in real-time as the weather data is released.  Contact us fore more information.




















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