Cold and Stormy Pattern To Continue Into Mid March

Written by on February 28, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Several Cold Outbreaks and Winter Storms To Hammer Northern US Next Two Weeks

 

To no surprise, the latest forecast data has trended colder for the northern and eastern US.  There will likely be three to four separate fairly impressive Canadian cold blasts to impact the northern US over the first two week of March, with several of them having the potential to push fairly deep into the Plains or Southeast.  The first winter storm is still expected in two phases this weekend with the stronger one setting up Sunday into Monday over the Ohio Valley and into heavily populated cities over the Northeast.  Snowfall of more than a 8-14″ is possible along a swath that includes NYC and Boston.  Cold air will follow this weekends storm deep into the Plains and then into the eastern US early next week.  This will again lead to temperature anomalies of 15-25°F colder than normal.  Late in the week temperatures will moderate briefly before another strong winter storm brings additional snowfall and cold temperatures back to the highest use states of the Midwest and Northeast next weekend. Thereafter, there should should be additional weather systems diving into the US through the Midwest with the aim on the East coast.  Other than a very brief surge of milder air before each storm, conditions will be persistently colder than normal over the northern US.  Even by the 14th of March there will still be some pretty cold air already over the  northern US or getting ready to make another push.  So all signs point to an active and cold pattern continuing into the third week of March.  This will test the mettle of the markets if they have bought into national forecasts hyping warmer weather.  We do caution the pattern is tricky and can still swing to a milder flavor of an active pattern over the weekend due to struggling models.

 

 

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The image shows the probability of 4″ or more of snow falling over the Ohio Valley Sunday. It’s a high likelihood and the image is useful to see where the swath of heaviest snowfall will occur. The swath will expand into the Northeast through NYC as we get into Sunday night and Monday morning.

 

We have been mentioning that a swath of heavy snow could fall across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. still looks that way and it could be right across the highest population cities uch as NYC, Boston. The image shows precip totals over the next 3 days. Note the swath of precip near or over an inch in these regions. If this falls as all snow it will easily be more than 6-10″ probably closer to a foot. . There would be a wintry mess in the transition zone with warmer air. This definitely could have some pretty big impacts.

We have been mentioning that a swath of heavy snow could fall across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. still looks that way and it could be right across the highest population cities such as NYC, Boston. The image shows precip totals over the next 3 days. Note the swath of precip near or over an inch in these regions. If this falls as all snow it will easily be more than 6-10″ probably closer to a foot. . There would be a wintry mess in the transition zone with warmer air. This definitely could have some pretty big impacts.

 

natural gas weather

The coming cold blast early next week is fairly impressive and will impact much of the Plains. Another round of several days with below zero or single digit temperatures are in store for the Midwest and into the Northeast. Dark blues and purples represent very cold air.

 

 

natural gas weather

I’m sure the Northeast will be thrilled to hear there is a decent chance for another round of snowfall next weekend.

 

natural gas weather

We have been saying those calling for another warm up would be wrong. After moderating temperatures late next week over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, another very cold blast will sweep through the Plains and Midwest again along with another round of snow for the Northeast.

 

natural gas weather

And then another cold blast around the 13th of March. You hopefully get the point there is nothing that says warmer weather is coming to the highest use states of the northern US anytime soon.

 

natural gas weather

The image shows the way the pattern can play out around March 14th as far as where its warmer or colder than normal and the data continues to trend to a colder pattern setting up over the northern US. Although are still a few outliers that try to hold onto a warmer scenario (bottom right) but we favor cold.

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