Chilly & Stormy Pattern To Continue

Written by on March 27, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments
Chilly and Stormy Weather To Continue Over Northern US

 

As we have been forecasting for quite some time, the very active and stormy weather pattern across the US would continue into the second week of April, leading to above normal nat gas and heating demand.  It continues to play out that way and should do so for at least a couple more weeks.  A brief warm up is taking place over the Midwest and Northeast today as a fresh weather system spins up over the central US.  This slow moving storm will gradually track into the eastern US over the coming days with showers and thunderstorms over the southern US and a wintry mix of precipitation over the Great Lakes and Northeast where several inches of snowfall is possible.  Another brief warm up will take place early next week as yet another storm system develops Monday and plays out fairly similar to the current weather system with slightly colder conditions being drawn into the highest use states of the Midwest and Northeast by the middle of next week.   We expect additional weather systems to spin up thereafter, keeping the active and chilly pattern ongoing.  The coming forecast models are sure to whipsaw over the coming days on how this tricky stormy set up plays out.  But one thing is certain, the pattern is active and will remain so for the foreseeable future, likely into the third week of April.  This will continue to lead to at least a few days of colder than normal temperatures over the northern US during any given week, and at times into the central US, which will keep national nat gas and heating demand above normal.  This cause much greater than normal draws over the coming few weeks, pushing reserves further below the 5 year average and possibly below 800 Bcf by the middle of April.

 

natural gas weather

After the brief warm up over the Midwest and Northeast into Friday another weather system will track through this weekend bringing a cool down to the highest use regions of the northern US. Image shows temps in Celsius a few thousand feet off the ground Sunday. It won’t be exceptionally cold, but chilly.

 

natural gas weather

Another brief warm up will take place over the Midwest and Northeast Monday into Tuesday as another storm system spins up over the northern Plains. This will be followed by several days of colder than normal conditions as chilly Canadian air is tapped on the backside.

 

natural gas weather

The image shows the jet stream around April 3rd. There are two troughs of low pressure with associated strong spring storms tracking across the country. Actually one over the central US and the other just moving into the west coast. The image shows the jet stream shaded in knots. This very active pattern will bring brief warm surges followed by several days of chilly conditions deep into the central and eastern US.

 

natural gas weather

The pattern going into the first week of April will remain active as we have been expecting for quite some time. The image shows a computer model forecast of a strong storm over the eastern US with cold air being drawn into the highest use states of the northern US. We are not saying the storm will play out like this, just that it favors storms rolling across the country.

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