Bulls Get No Breaks, Weather Data Trends Warmer Yet Again

Written by on February 10, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, February 10: The weekend weather data was colder trending late this week with a frigid system tracking across the Midwest and Northeast. However, the data trended considerably milder Feb 16-23rd with much less cold air across the northern US for big demand losses. Specifically, the GFS model lost 25 HDD’s, while the European model lost 16 HDD’s. This could be reason if prices were to open lower. Just like all winter so far, colder patterns in the day 13-16 forecast trended much warmer as they rolled into days 6-11. But now the day 13-16 forecast is also quite mild vs normal across eastern ½ of the US. Essentially, the nat gas markets are likely to be disappointed the only cold enough days out of the next 15 will Feb 13-15th as the South and East will be quite comfortable by February standards before and after. It’s important to consider the supply/demand balance tightened further last week, but at issue is weather patterns won’t take advantage besides a few day Feb 13-15.


Monday: A messy pattern with numerous weather systems bringing rain and snow. However, the only truly cold air will be over the Upper Midwest with light national demand continuing.


A strong cold shot remains on track to sweep across the Midwest and Northeast late this week for a swing to strong national demand. However, it won’t last.



Monday: Bulls just can’t get any breaks this winter as the weekend weather data again trends milder. It actually trended colder with a frigid shot into the Midwest and Northeast late this week, but big milder trends occurred after for Feb 16-23, as depicted in the graph where HDD’s are now forecast to be solidly below/warmer vs normal.

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