Brief Warm Up Followed By Pleasant Temperatures

Written by on September 3, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

NatGasWeather.com

Issued Wednesday 3:00 am EDT

 

Weather Discussion & Confidence:   There is little reason to discuss what will once be Tropical Storm Dolly as the only impacts will be much needed rains for southern Texas. The tropics will remain fairly active, but there are no immediate threats. The next several days will bring another brief warm up to the Midwest and Northeast as temperatures warm into the 80s. The southern US will also see a few degrees of warming as highs reach the mid and upper 90s before the next Canadian weather system tracks across the north-central US and into the East Friday through the weekend. If the markets are looking for short term reasons for support, the next couple days of warming will help provide that, especially when combined with one of the lowest EIA weekly reports of the year to be released Thursday. But weather patterns starting September 6th and lasting much of the second week of September will provide very pleasant conditions over many regions with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Again, what is more important about this pattern is several degrees of cooling will also push deep into the southern US, including Texas, where highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s will be more common instead of the recent mid-90s and lower 100s. This will noticeably decrease national cooling demand, regardless of if a few extreme northern US regions see light heating demand as overnight lows drop into the 40s after Canadian cool fronts sweep through. Simply put; the pattern will remain very active with numerous cool blasts impacting the northern US which will prevent hot late summer weather from setting up. If anywhere sees slightly warmer than normal temperatures the next few weeks, it will be over the Southeast, and at times along the East Coast.

 

Cooling Demand Next 7 Days (Compared to normal): MODERATE        Weather Market Threat: LOW

 

Market Effect: The nat gas markets sold off sharply Tuesday and closed down more than 15¢. Tropical Storm Dolly has indeed tracked south of Texas with no impacts to US nat gas interests. The focus then turns to coming weather patterns and this week’s EIA weekly report, which has trended up slightly and is expected to come in around 73-76 Bcf, which would be right near last week’s lowest build of the year. From here on out there will be nothing but larger builds to come as the shoulder season begins with 85+ Bcf builds being expected for the remainder of September. It won’t be a perfect pattern, which it really never is, as there will be areas that remain quite warm over the southern US at times, while also potentially extending up along the East Coast. Not to mention there will also be days where cold enough temperatures will drive limited heating demand over the far northern US. We were a bit surprised prices were able to test $4.00-$4.06 all last week even though we knew bearish headwinds would be easing. We just didn’t believe there was truly that much potential to the upside. That clearly worked itself out with yesterday’s strong sell off as big market players were caught buying into early winter season hype when it really wasn’t warranted. I’m sure Tropical Storm Dolly proving to be a bust couldn’t have hurt, nor did very favorable build weather coming to the northern and central US with lower than normal cooling demand. We continue to believe there will be more downside pressure on prices over the next month or so. However, the next few days could give back a bit of Tuesday’s losses as warmer temperatures briefly return to the Midwest and East Coast and combine with one of the lowest builds of the year when released Thursday by the EIA after some volatility going into positioning for it. After the weekly report is behind us, weather patterns should provide nothing but much larger builds to come with deficits continuing to make up ground in steady chunks for many weeks to come. Once a truly ominous winter weather pattern threatens, we expect the markets to again come to life for an early winter season run. We just continue to believe there will be plenty of time to buy at much better prices before this happens.

 

 

Selected Daily Weather Images:

 

For Wednesday, August 3rd:

 

 

Wednesday's Weather:

Wednesday’s Weather: Tropical Storm Dolly will weaken as it moves in south of Texas with rains spreading into the southern portions of the state. Showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast will drop temperatures a few degrees. Very warm temperatures over Texas and the southern Plains will surge toward the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next few days before another Canadian weather system comes out of the northern Rockies and tracks toward the central US.

 

 

 

8-14 Day Outlook:

8-14 Day Outlook: A weather system moving into the central US will bring near or cooler than normal temperatures for much of the outlook. Temperatures could remain slightly warmer than normal over the Southeast depending on how far into the southern US a fairly strong Canadian cool blast pushes. The western US will be slightly warmer than normal with high pressure holding strong.

 

 

 

Temperatures Thursday

Temperatures Thursday will see a surge 0f 90s push toward the southern Great Lakes and toward the Ohio Valley. However, a fresh Canadian weather system will begin tracking out of the northern Rockies and toward the central US.

 

 

 

Temperatures by this Saturday will be quite a bit more comfortable over the northern US.

Temperatures by this Saturday will be quite a bit more comfortable over the northern US as the weather system sweeps through with widespread highs in the 70s with upper 80s into the southern Plains, northern Texas, and portions of the Southeast.

 

 

 

The pattern going into September 11-12th will be

The pattern going into September 11-12th will be characterized by another Canadian weather system tracking toward the central and eastern US. The Southeast and East Coast could be warm for several days as high pressure builds out ahead of the approaching weather system.

 

 

 

We have been quite confident another cooler than normal Canadian weather system will track into the central US and push cooling fairly deep into the southern US.  However, there are still details to be worked out, sush as just how far into the US lower than normal cooling demand will push and also how fast it will impact the eastern US after warming a few degrees for several days.  The image shows the pattern for September 12th with blue "c" showing colder scenarios and "m" being mild with "w" being on the warmer side of it potentially playing out.  We like a mix between the cold and mild pattern and think the warmer one has the least chance of playing out.

We have been quite confident another cooler than normal Canadian weather system will track into the central US and push cooling fairly deep into the southern US. However, there are still details to be worked out, such as just how far into the US lower than normal cooling demand will push and also how fast it will impact the eastern US after warming a few degrees for several days. The image shows the pattern for September 12th with blue “c” showing colder scenarios, with “m” being mild, and “w” being on the warmer side of potential scenarios playing out. We like a mix between the cold and mild pattern and think the warmer one has the least chances of playing out.

 

 

 

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