Bouts of Cooling Across N. US, But Still Bearish

Written by on April 29, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments


Monday, April 29:   June’19 nat gas futures continued rallying Friday, closing up 3¢ at $2.58. Gains on the week were viewed being aided by cooler trends across the northern US this week through next weekend.   To our view, the nat gas markets are likely to view the data as little changed since the data still shows bouts of cool air pushing across the Canadian border through mid-May, and due to the important European model remaining to the cooler side across the northern US.   The net result is still numerous builds over +100 Bcf into early June, just fewer to reach or exceed +120 Bcf .   So, same theme as last week, bearish, just not as impressively bearish.   As far as details, a weather system with rain and snow will track across the Midwest and Northeast Monday into Tuesday for modest heating demand as lows dip into the 20s to lower 40s. National demand will be aided by slightly hot conditions over the Southeast where highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. National demand will ease below normal Wed-Thu as a warm break between cool shots sets up across the S. Great Lakes and East as highs of upper 60s to 80s return. A fresh cool shot will track across the northern US next weekend, with the core of the coldest air through the Northeast. This pattern will continue through mid-May where weak cool shots will impact the northern US, along with slightly hot conditions across the southern US. Essentially, some demand, but not enough to completely stop bearish weather headwinds.

Monday’s Weather Map


Monday Morning lows, highlighting a cool norther tier.


Wed-Thu: Milder mid-week break across S. Great Lakes to Northeast, while still warm over the rest of the southern and eastern US for lighter demand.


This Weekend: Another weak cool shot will race across the northern US Fri-Sun, coolest over the Northeast. This will bring a minor bump in national demand but still not strong with the rest of the US mostly comfortable besides a touch hot over the Southwest.


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