Biggest Nat Gas Of The Season To Be Reported

Written by on April 30, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments
Biggest Nat Gas Build Of The Season To Be Reported

 

 

Although weather was quite active again during last weeks nat gas build period (April 18-15th), temperatures were quite mild across the Plains and southern US as high pressure temporarily build in.  Timely warm surges ahead of developing spring storms was the primary reason for milder conditions across much of the central US.  However, enough chilly air hovered over some of the highest use northern states of the Midwest and Northeast to require modest demand for nat gas.  Over much of the northern US conditions were several degrees cooler than normal when averaged over the entire week, which is not an exceptional amount.  But it should be noted that overnight lows had more impressive cool anomalies compared to the average, which factors in daytime highs.  In fact, overnight lows were consistently below 35°F over much of the northern US, including the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast.  This likely led to higher overnight demand than what would be expected by just looking at daytime highs or average temperatures.    We have seen a wide range of estimates for the coming EIA report with the most common range showing a +75 to +83 build.  We would not be surprised if it again comes in on the lower side of estimates based on the active weather pattern and slightly cooler than normal conditions over much of the east, especially in regards to the aforementioned overnight lows.   The images below highlight temperatures over the draw period.  Note how much cooler the overnight lows during the draw period were compared to normal when compared to just the average temperature anomalies.  That could potentially bias the draw to the cool side due to stronger overnight and morning nat gas demand.   This weeks nat gas build will be the biggest of the season and should bring supplies within striking distance of rising back over 1.o Tcf, but it is still not enough to make up significant ground on the nearly 1.0 Tcf deficit they are running behind the 5 year average.  Next weeks build won’t be super hefty either as the current slow moving spring storm is providing cool conditions over many regions, thereby preventing the central and eastern US from experiencing “perfect” build weather.

 

 

ave temps

The image shows the average temperature (max and min) for the coming weekly nat gas report. The bottom image shows the anomalies of where temperatures are cooler or warmer than normal. The Great Lakes and all of the eastern US were cooler than normal, but not by a significant amount while the plains and southern US was quite warm.

Weekly temperatures min and max

This image we believe is more telling than just looking at the average temperature anomaly.  Note the bottom two images where the first shows the average overnight lows and the second (right) shows that temperatures were cooler than normal over a much greater area of the Midwest and eastern US than the average temp anomaly.  All of the Midwest and Northeast experienced overnight temperatures in the 30s for much of the week.  This required enough nat gas and heating demand to prevent the coming build from being bigger than what it could have.  It will still be a nice build, just not exceptional and could come in light.

 

 

 

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