Wx Model Differences Continue Between GFS & ECMWF

Written by on June 18, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, June 18: Large differences continue between the GFS and European model, which were further exacerbated in the overnight data as the GFS trended further hotter, while the European model was little changed compared to Monday afternoon but was 4 TDD’s cooler compared to its run 24-hours ago. The European model does advertise a hotter pattern arriving next week into the start of July, just not nearly as strong with the upper ridge compared to the more intimidating GFS model. The coming pattern is still hot enough to finally end bearish weather headwinds, it’s just that it would be considered solidly bullish if the GFS were to prove correct. But since the European model failed to trend hotter overnight, this makes today’s mid-day data again of considerable interest to see if the GFS is too hot and trends cooler, or if the European model is too cool and trends hotter.

Upper ridge building strong late next week with coverage of 90s and 100s increasing. However, the GFS is hotter with the ridge than the European model.

 

Large differences continue between the GFS and European model, which were further exacerbated in the overnight data as the GFS trended further hotter, while the European model was little changed compared to Monday afternoon but was 4 TDD’s cooler compared to its run 24-hours ago. The European model does advertise a hotter pattern arriving next week into the start of July, just not nearly as strong with the upper ridge compared to the more intimidating GFS model. .

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