The Big Thaw Underway

Written by on January 8, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

The Big Thaw Underway

 

Temperatures continue to rapidly warm over much of the US as the Arctic outbreak fizzles.  This will lead to temperatures over many areas across the central and eastern US that are 20 to 30°F warmer than yesterday.  So while this is a significant warm up, it is actually still colder than normal.  This shows just how cold the record breaking outbreak was.  Temperatures were again below freezing over much of the Southeast, but should warm rapidly to well above freezing during the morning hours.   The first image shows yesterday’s low temperatures, which was at the peak of the cold snap.  It is impressive to see just how cold the morning lows were over the southern US, especially northern Florida, where a hard freeze occurred.  Only coastal locations saw above freezing for most of the continental US.  By Saturday, temperatures are expected to further warm, leading to huge warm anomalies which will be greater than 15-20°F warmer than normal over portions of the eastern US.  This will lead to rapid easing of nat gas and heating demand after very large draws this past week.   It won’t be until early next week before the next cold front pushes into the US, for a return to more normal US temperatures for the central and eastern US.

 

These are the low temperatures observed from Tuesday, the coldest day of the Arctic outbreak.  It's easy to see why huge nat gas draws are expected with only portions of the western US coastline and the Florida coast above freezing.  Note the hard freeze in northern Florida and single digits for northern Alabama and Georgia.

These are the low temperatures observed Tuesday, the coldest day of the Arctic outbreak. It’s easy to see why huge nat gas draws are expected with only portions of the western US coastline and the Florida coast above freezing. Note the hard freeze in northern Florida and single digits for northern Alabama and Georgia. Much of the Midwest and Northeast was below zero.

 

Even though this morning started out much cooler than normal for most of the eastern US, the temperatures are actually quite a bit warmer than this same time yesterday morning. Note the huge 20-30F 24 hour changes over the central and eastern US.  It's cold, just not nearly as brutally cold.

Even though this morning started out much cooler than normal for most of the eastern US, the temperatures are actually quite a bit warmer than this same time yesterday morning. Note the huge 20-30°F 24 hour changes over the central and eastern US. It’s cold, just not nearly as brutally cold.

 

 

Even though the weather map shows relatively cool conditions across the Midwest and eastern US, it is actually significantly warmer than yesterday.  Highs will finally get above freezing for the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Plains.

Even though the weather map shows relatively cool conditions across the Midwest and eastern US, it is actually significantly warmer than yesterday. Highs will finally get above freezing for the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Plains and Mid-Atlantic.

 

The image shows areas where conditions will be warmer or colder compared to normal for this day.  The Midwest and eastern US is experiencing a rapid thaw, but it will still be cooler than normal for one more day.  The western US remains quite warm.

The image shows areas where conditions will be warmer or colder compared to normal for this day. The Midwest and eastern US is experiencing a rapid thaw, but it will still be cooler than normal for one more day. The western US remains quite warm.

 

As we have been foreastting for some time, this big pattern change will bring a significant warm up to the central and eastern US through this weekend.  By Saturday, huge warm temperature anomalies are expected which will result in conditions being 10-25F warmer than normal.

As we have been forecasting for some time, this big pattern change will bring a significant warm up to the central and eastern US through this weekend. By Saturday, huge warm temperature anomalies are expected which will result in conditions being 10-25°F warmer than normal.

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