Big Milder Trends Thursday & Overnight

Written by on January 17, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Friday, January 17:   Feb’20 nat gas futures were 3¢ higher after the EIA reported a larger than normal draw on supplies in its EIA weekly storage report. However, prices crashed going into the official close as the European model trended much milder, losing more than 20 HDD’s. Prices continued lower overnight when the GFS model also lost nearly 20 HDD’s, followed by the European model losing another 8 HDD’s of further milder trends. Clearly, big bearish weather trends over the past 24-hours and nat gas markets again reacted lower on the negative news. Milder trends occurred overnight throughout the 15-day forecast with next week’s cold shot across the Midwest and East not quite as cold and also shorter in duration. Milder trends also occurred Jan 22-28th as the frigid cold pool retreats into Canada. The weather data still shows another push of cold air back into the northern US January 29-31st, but also wasn’t as cold with it by showing less cold air and not as deep into the US. It doesn’t help that next week’s draw is expected to come in another 100 Bcf lighter than normal to increase surpluses to nearly +250 Bcf vs the 5-year average. Clearly, it’s going to take much colder trends to intimidate after 3-weeks of exceptionally bearish weather, followed by big demand losses for the last ten days of January in just the past 18-hours.

Shading of red means milder trends, and there were big milder trends in the European model over the past 12-hours, losing more than 30 HDD’s. 

 

The graph shows how the European model lost big amounts of demand in the recent two runs.

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