Bearish US Weather Patterns Continue!

Written by on October 8, 2021 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Friday, October 8:    Yesterday’s EIA build of +118 Bcf was the largest Fall shoulder season build of the past 6-years.  Both the overnight GFS and EC weather data were little changed as they maintain a comfortable pattern over the eastern 2/3 of the US much of the next 15-days with highs of 60s to 80s besides slightly hotter 90s over Texas and slightly cooler 50s near the Canadian border.  The Northwest and Mountain West will be the cooler exceptions going forward as Pacific systems bring much needed valley rains and mountain snows with highs of 40s to 60s.   We expect weather patterns will remain solidly bearish into late October when more impressive cold fronts finally attempt to push into the Midwest and East, although yet to look any more convincing they will do so.   No change to our view, the longer it takes for widespread freezing temperatures to arrive into the US, the better shape supplies will be in ahead of the start of the draw season, potentially reaching as high as 3.7 Tcf if cold stalls through early November.

Weather patterns remain much warmer than normal over the eastern 2/3 of the US and why national demand remains very light versus normal.


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Temperatures this weekend will be 60s to 80s most of US besides locally 90s Texas/S. Plains and 50s Northwest for continued very light national demand.


 

Our Live HDD/CDD weather data continues to forecast very light demand from both the GFS and EC weather models the next 15-days as HDD/CDD totals remain well below normal.

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