Bearish US Pattern, Although Data Added A Little Demand Over the Weekend

Written by on April 22, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, April 22:  Minor cooler changes over the weekend, especially with a weather system across the northern US next week, but overall still an exceptionally comfortable US pattern through early May with highs of upper 60s to 80s ruling most days.   As far as details, a weather system will exit the Northeast today, although remaining quite comfortable with highs of 60s and 70s, including near 70°F for NYC. A weather system over the Rockies will track across the far northern US mid-week with heavy showers and minor cooling, while a second system will track over Texas and the south-central US mid-week with soaking rains but still comfortable with highs of 60s and 70s. A colder trending weather system is expected across the northern US next weekend and where some demand was added compared to late last week as highs cool into the 50s. However, this will be followed by warm high pressure dominating the Midwest, East, and South in late April through early May with highs of 70s from Chicago to NYC, potentially near 80°F. Cooler exceptions for early May are favored across the lower population regions of the N. Rockies and Plains. As the Midwest to Northeast become nearly perfect temperature wise in early May, temperatures will become a touch hot over the southern US as coverage of 90s gains ground. However, the markets will be forced to wait for more intimidating heat when considering the rest of the country will be exceptionally comfortable. To our view, any truly intimidating heat won’t begin to build until late May. Until then, continued improvement in deficits should be expected, starting with this week’s build where early market expectations currently favor it to print very close to last week’s at around +88-92 Bcf, moderately greater than the 5-year average of +47 Bcf. The following several builds will also be notably larger than normal and well over +100 Bcf, the cumulation of which will ease deficits from -414 Bcf towards -300 Bcf. No change bigger picture with bearish weather headwinds expected to continue into the foreseeable future. With that said, the markets could want a few cents back since the weekend data did add a few HDD’s compared to last week.   Of course, weekend production trends will also impact early week trade where it will be of interest to see if $2.48 on May’19 futures hold as support, or if bears can continue to grind prices lower.

Mondays Weather Map

 

Highs Monday with comfortable conditions most of US besides Rockies.

 

The weather pattern Tue-Fri will be quite comfortable across the US with highs of 60s to 80s. There will still be weather systems with showers, one across the far northern US and a second warmer one over the Southwest into Texas.

 

Monday: Minor cooler changes over the weekend, especially with a weather system across the northern US this weekend.

 

April 30-May 3: Very nice conditions are expected to close out April into early May with 70s from Chicago to NYC for very light demand. It will be a touch hot over portions of the southern US with 80s to 90s, but overall very light national demand. It will be a touch cool across the Northwestern US but far from cold.  Image shows heat signature off the surface around May 2, highlighting a warm US pattern with little demand for heating or cooling. 

 

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