Arctic Blast This Week, But Data Not Cold Enough Nov 18-25

Written by on November 12, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, November 12: Dec’19 nat gas futures closed sharply lower Monday by 15¢ after the weekend weather data trended further milder Nov 18-24th, and due to lower 48-state production hitting fresh all-time highs over the weekend. Monday’s data added back several HDD’s on colder trends, and the overnight data added a few more. But even with colder trends to add several HDD’s Nov 18-25 in all major overnight weather models, the pattern still isn’t nearly cold enough to intimidate. But demand has been added the past 18-hours, so it’s possible the nat gas markets want a few cents back today. But to be considered bullish, the frigid Arctic cold pool would need to return into the northern US after retreating into Canada late this weekend, which still isn’t expected. But a little colder trends have occurred and the nat gas markets could notice. Overall, the pattern remains plenty cold enough through the coming weekend due to the current Arctic blast and a reinforcing cold shot into the Northeast Fri-Sun. However, the data still isn’t cold enough Nov 18-25th, even after colder trends. . There’s still expected to be weather systems into the northern and central US, they just will be rather seasonal for this time of the year with only modestly cooler than normal temperatures.
 

Tuesday: A frigid Arctic Blast is pushing into the East Coast with areas of rain and snow. Frigid temperatures behind the cold front with current conditions this morning of -0s to 20s over much of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, including hard feezes into Texas and portions of the South. This is also resulting in freeze-offs for some production regions that’s reducing national production by 1.5-2.0 Bcf so far today.


 

Overnight HDD forecasts from the European ensemble model show a plenty cold enough pattern through the coming weekend, but then not cold enough after, even after colder trends Monday and last night.

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