Another Week, Another Milder Trend

Written by on January 29, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

January 29, 2020:  Both the GFS and EC lost 10 HDD’s overnight on milder trends. The greatest damage was done Feb 5-8 as the weather data now shows limited cold air advancing into the northern US. The Feb 9-12 pattern still looked rather chilly with stronger cold pushes into the Midwest and Northeast. But with the Feb 5-8 pattern trending warmer, here we are again kicking the cold can down the road. Prices held up relatively well past 3 days despite both the GFS and EC losing nearly 30 HDD’s. A tighter supply/demand balance has been mentioning likely helping and could also be due to expiration of Feb’20 options yesterday and futures at todays close.

Days 1-7:  Another 7 days of bearish weather to get through over the eastern 2/3 of the US. There will still be numerous weather system track across the US the next 7-days, just none cold as frigid air retreats into Canada and out of the reach of US weather systems.

 

Wednesday: Image shows trend in the European data vs its run 24-hours ago, the 0z Tuesday run vs 0z Wednesday with red shading shower warmer trend, blue shading showing colder trends.  Big warmer trends northern & eastern US. 

 

The European data forecasts daily national HDD’s to be much below normal now through Feb 8, which is a big milder trend as the data had been showing a solid cold shot into the Midwest and Northeast Feb 5-8.

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