Another Cool Canadian Blast Possible To End July

Written by on July 17, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Mid Day Update: The EIA weekly report came in with a 107 Bcf build, which was a bit higher than expectations. The market immediately sold off and had no problem pushing below what was supposed to be strong $4.00 support. The latest 12z operational GFS has just come in and it has trended colder after next week’s warm up, which only gives the bears more fodder to prove their point. As we have been warning, this would clearly be viewed as bearish to the big market players as it would lead to another much larger than normal build to start the first week of August. The ridge still has some potential to hold, but it has yet to prove it, so why expect it to happen this time. Prices have had good reason to sell off with the string of hefty builds and bearish weather patterns, so logic says no reason to fight the tide when it’s clearly down. But at some point, regardless of bearish weather headwinds, prices will rally after going a bit too far. When this occurs, it will take a change to much hotter US weather patterns to keep any bullish momentum going. But clearly, the EIA report, weather, and momentum are saying prices should continue fall, at least for now.

 

Attached Images:
1)The 12Z GFS has trended toward a colder late July solution for the Midwest and eastern US.

 

Here is a link where you can see departure from normal high temperatures and how they will trend over the coming week as the cold anomaly fizzles to near normal and high pressure builds in with warming temperatures.

 

https://www.natgasweather.com/high-temperature-departure-from-normal

 
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