CPC/NOAA Seasonal Outlook – Summer (June, July, Aug)

   Nov 15-21: Chilly conditions will cover much of the US again with lows of teens to 40s, keeping national demand stronger than normal. A weather system exiting the Southeast will track north up the East Coast with areas of rain and snow, although not as cold as recent systems since its coming from the South. Another strong cold blast is expected into the central, southern, and the eastern US Sat-Wed with lows again of 10-30s north and 30s to lower 40s across portions of Texas and the South/Southeast.  Overall, demand will be VERY HIGH.

Nov 15:  Today’s EIA weekly nat gas storage report printed a build in supplies of +39 Bcf vs the 5-year average of +19 Bcf and larger than surveys of +33-36 Bcf.  We were too low with our estimate as we expected +29 Bcf.  This miss put our correctness at 11 of the past 13 weeks after being 11 of 12.   The +39 Bcf build increases supplies to 3,247 Bcf, which is -601 Bcf below than the 5-year average, and -528 Bcf less then this time last year.  Next week’s build will be much larger than the 5-year average by more than 60+ Bcf.

 
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