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Friday:   Feb’20 nat gas futures were 3¢ higher Thursday after the EIA reported a larger than normal draw on supplies in its EIA weekly storage report.  However, prices crashed going into the official close as the European model trended much milder, losing more than 20 HDD’s. Prices continued lower overnight when the GFS model also lost nearly 20 HDD’s, followed by the European model losing another 8 HDD’s of further milder trends.  Milder trends occurred overnight throughout the 15-day forecast with next week’s cold shot across the Midwest and East not quite as cold and also shorter in duration. Milder trends also occurred Jan 22-28th as the frigid cold pool retreats into Canada. The weather data still shows another push of cold air back into the northern US January 29-31st, but also wasn’t as cold with it by showing less cold air and not as deep into the US.  It doesn’t help that next week’s draw is expected to come in 100 Bcf lighter than normal to increase surpluses to nearly +250 Bcf.   Clearly, it’s going to take much colder trends to intimidate after 3-weeks of exceptionally bearish weather, followed by big demand losses for the last ten days of January in just the past 18-hours.  Shading of red in the image above shows milder trends in last night European model vs its run 24-hours prior.

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Latest News

Big Milder Trends Thursday & Overnight

January 17, 2020, No comments

Friday, January 17:   Feb’20 nat gas futures were 3¢ higher after the EIA reported a larger than normal draw on supplies in its EIA weekly sto ...

Colder Pattern Coming to Finally End 3-Weeks of Bearish Weather

January 14, 2020, No comments

Tuesday, January 14:  National demand will remain very light for a couple more days as much warmer than normal conditions with highs of 60s to 80s st ...

Finally, Stronger Cold Shot Midwest & Northeast Today. Then Back to Mild Until Jan 16.

January 8, 2020, No comments

Wednesday, January 8: Prices have traded both sides of $2.15-16 the past several days, so we look to see which side of it prices trade today. The weat ...

Overnight Weather Data Trends Milder, Prices Drop

December 27, 2019, No comments

Friday, December 27: Feb’20 nat gas futures closed sharply higher Thursday by 9¢. The weather data didn’t trend notably colder to justify ...

Warmer Trends Continue Into 1st Week of January

December 24, 2019, No comments

Tuesday, December 24: Jan’20 nat gas futures gapped lower after the weekend break on milder trends, and continued lower early Monday on further ...

GFS Trends Much Colder Past 24-Hours, European Model Disagrees

December 11, 2019, No comments

Wednesday, December 11:  The overnight GFS model trended further colder by a hefty 20 HDD’s, seeing a frigid cold shot push into the northern US ne ...