Overnight Colder Trends for Oct 20-25 Across East

Written by on October 8, 2018 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, October 8th:  Morning Update:  Nov’18 HH futures are solidly higher this morning by 8 cents.   Prices opened several cents higher after the weekend break, then added to it overnight as all weather models trended a bit cooler October 21-25 across the eastern US.  It’s not a cold pattern Oct 21-25, but did show stronger cooling across the East to add several HDD’s/Bcf in demand.  The first image below highlight the cooler overnight trend by showing what the GFS showed in the mid-day Sunday’s run versus the overnight run.  The second image shows where cooler or hotter trends have taken place for Oct 21, highlighting cooler trends across the Midwest and much of the east-central US and warmer trends over the West.  The last image shows, the European model also trended colder where the national forecasted HDD’s increased compared to previous runs after Oct 20.  It’s not a cold pattern Oct 20-25, but is cooler compared to what the data showed over the weekend.  The pattern before then had slight, but less important changes, with a warm eastern half of the US pattern to open this week, followed by stronger cold shots over the western US releasing late in the week across the Midwest and then the East, while lasting through much of next week.  The markets will be watching to see if overnight colder trends hold or trend further colder in the mid-day and afternoon data.

 

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