US Natural Gas & Heating Weather Forecast
Numerous Weather Systems & Cool Blasts To Continue Over Midwest and Northeast Into Early May
Wednesday 8:45 pm EDT
Forecast Summary: (April 24th – April 30th) A slow moving weather system will track through the Great Lakes and Northeast over the coming days with reinforcing cool to hang on through the weekend as temperatures continue below normal. The southern US and Plains will warm at times to near or slightly above normal, which will help provide some modest gains to supplies. However, an even stronger trough of low pressure will bring a larger Spring storm early next week which should stall over much of the central and eastern US for much of the first week of May. This will lead to another period of prolonged cooler than normal conditions and will keep supplies from being anything other than modest for the next several weekly builds. The West will also see a period of cool conditions this week as Pacific storms move inland with valley rains and mountain snows. Overall, the active and chilly pattern across much of the US will continue as nat gas and heating demand models finally realize they have been overplaying the coming warm and builds in supplies.
8 -14 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook Summary: (May 1st – May 7th) Another impressive cool blast will push over much of the central and eastern US during the outlook period and stall leading to widespread unsettled weather along with cooler than normal conditions. As the week progresses, temperatures will warm over the Plains and western US as high pressure gradually builds in with near to above normal temperatures expected. There is potential for warmer conditions to push into the Midwest and Northeast late in the outlook.
8-14 Day Outlook Details: (May 1st - May 7th): The latest forecast data continues to show an extensive trough of low pressure will set up during the first week of May over most of the central and eastern US. This will lead to cooler than normal conditions for these regions for much of the outlook period, leading to stronger than normal nat gas and heating demand for many high use northern and Mid-Atlantic states. The model data continues to struggle with the details of how this plays out but they are all on board with it playing out to some extent. Over the western US and into the Plains, high pressure will build in and lead to near or above normal temperatures, which will allow builds in supplies to progress in these regions. There is nothing to suggest the active and stormy weather pattern that has plagued the Midwest and eastern US all winter and now into Spring will change in the next few weeks. This will keep builds from exceeding +100 Bcf for some time. In fact, they will struggle to reach +50 to +75 Bcf at times in such a pattern, especially if the trough sets up over the eastern US as we expect during the outlook. We have said the pattern would remain as such for quite some time and it continues to play out. However, we caution there is data we are seeing that hints a big pattern change could be in the offing and that could bring more fun and surprises to the nat gas markets.
Natural Gas & Heating Demand (compared to normal): MODERATE
Weather Market Threat: Days 1-15: MODERATE – HIGH
Market Effect: (For April 24th): The nat gas markets were little changed Wednesday ahead of the weekly storage report. Not much new was gleaned from weather forecasts or price action and the storage report could again be a catalyst to price movement. Temperatures over the southern US will be favorable for building supplies over the next week but not as much over the northern US as several cool blasts will sweep through into early May, especially towards the Ohio River Valley regions and the Northeast. A fairly pronounced low pressure trough is still expected to set up over much of the central and eastern US next week with cooler than normal conditions for many regions including deep into the southern US. The forecast models are all over the place with how much cool Canadian air gets tapped and this will lead to whip-sawing forecasts over the coming days. However it plays out is somewhat irrelevant because its about the pattern, and it remains very active with plenty of opportunity for strong Spring storms as well as cool blasts. We continue to view any significant sell offs as buying opportunities until it looks like several weeks of favorable weather conditions will lead to hefty +100 Bcf injections. There will likely be a couple of them in May and early June, but it likely will be fewer than the markets would have been expecting going into the shoulder season, especially after all the hype of record injections. There is nothing to suggest supplies will make up significant ground on the 1.0 Tcf deficit for the time being and that should keep a floor under the market.
Selected Weather Images:
Active Weather To Again Bring Only Modest Builds To Nat Gas Supplies The coming storage report will bring another modest build to supplies, alb ...
Active Weather To Keep Coming Weekly Storage Builds In Check The weekly nat gas storage report came in with a build of only +24 Bcf, whi ...
Active Weather Kept Warm Temperatures In Check For Weekly Storage Report Weather during the period April 5th-11th was very active with Spring s ...
A Strong Cold Blast Barreling Through The US & Deep Into The Southern Plains The latest Spring storm continues to roll across the US and wi ...
Strong Cold Blast To Push Deep Into US Sunday Through Tuesday We have been calling for a fairly strong cold blast to hit the central and easter ...