US Natural Gas & Heating Weather Forecast
Strong Winter Storm To Hammer Northern US Today
Reinforcing Cold Fronts To Sweep Through Midwest and Eastern US This Weekend & Next Week
Wednesday 1:00 pm EST
Mid Day Pattern Update: The forecast models continue to stream in and everything is on track into early next week. The only change that’s so far showing up is how much cold air will be brought into the Midwest and Northeast late next week. The latest data isn’t as aggressive with it as the storm tracking across the north will be attempting to drag cold air on the back side of it. However, a storm coming out of the Southwest may be perfectly placed and would provide a warm surge to exactly counter the cold blast and a battle would ensue with the net result being cold air won’t be able to advance as far into the northern US. We expect the models to continue to struggle with how this plays out for a few more days. Thereafter, a decent warm surge will start the last week of March in a very stormy pattern followed by cold blasts through the end of the month.
Forecast Summary: (March 12th – March 18th) A strong winter storm will roll across the northern US today and bring heavy snow across the northern Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, especially New England, with a wide swath receiving more than 6-10″ of snowfall. The associated cold front should push fairly deep into the Southeast with freezing temperatures expected over many regions. However, the coldest air associated with this initial cold blast will be confined to the Great Lakes and Northeast with lows dropping into the single digits and teens. There is expected to be a very short break Friday into Saturday as temperatures warm slightly ahead of the next reinforcing cold blast to follow over the weekend as well as the potential for additional light northern US snowfall. Additional cold outbreaks will follow into next week over the northern US with the focus again on the Great Lakes and Northeast. As we have been forecasting for some time, there is nothing to suggest this very active and cold pattern will quit anytime soon, like through the rest of the month.
8 -14 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook Summary: (March 19th – 25th) Cold air will be over the Great Lakes and eastern US during the first several days of the outlook as several weather systems track through. However, milder conditions are expected to push into much of the central and eastern US during the second half of the period, easing nat gas and heating demand.
8-14 Day Outlook Details: (March 19th – March 25th): Cold air associated with a weather system tracking through the northern US should start the the outlook period. How cold over the Midwest and Northeast is still a bit in question as the forecast models are struggling between a pretty impressive cold blast for the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic or a just a moderately cooler than normal one. Either way, these regions should see several days of cooler than normal temperatures and above normal nat gas demand start the outlook period. A strong storm is expected to develop around the 21st-22nd in the Plains and should produce a warm surge of milder air into all of the central and eastern US as it winds up. This will likely lead to above normal temperatures over all of the central and eastern US except for the Midwest and Northeast where it will be just closer to normal. There are still lots of ways this brief warm pattern plays out and will depend heavily on the track of the storm. It very well could be another warm trap. If fact we are leaning that way as we suspect as soon as this several day warm surge plays out, additional cold blasts will immediately follow. Because cold air will be lurking over southern Canada during this entire process, there is potential for the warm up again be muted or last a bit shorter than what the models are currently advertising. We know national forecasts will again bite on this warm pattern and it will likely again be over-hyped, but know it’s a very sloppy and active pattern with the potential for warm surges, strong winter storms, and cold outbreaks, but overall it favors colder than normal conditions to return for the last week of March.
Natural Gas & Heating Demand (compared to normal): MODERATE - HIGH Days 1 -15.
Weather Market Threat: Days 1-15: HIGH - VERY HIGH Days 1 – 15. (Market needs to show reaction soon or will downgrade)
Market Effect: (For March 12th) - Nat Gas prices sold off slightly Tuesday but did little to reveal where it will go next as it remains in a tight trading range, but it does feel like prices are coiling and ready to spring one way or the other. The coming weather pattern weather pattern still favors it springing to the upside but has shown that for quite some time with little reaction. The coming big winter storm for the northern US should bring some hype, but would be more effective if the track was slightly further south as to bring heavy snow and colder temperatures to higher population regions along the Northeast coast. When the cold does set in as the storm tracks out of the US, it will remain for the coming 10 days. There will be a day or two during this time where temperatures moderate over the highest use states of the Midwest and Northeast, such as Friday into Saturday, but each time it will be countered with an unseasonably cold blast of Canadian air. This will play out until March 21st when another warm surge will bait those following the 8-14 day outlooks into thinking a nice prolonged warm up could be coming and in all likelihood it won’t be as additional cold blasts continue through the northern US. This will lead to higher than normal nat gas draws through March and likely into April . We know any draws to come will be less than -100 Bcf draws due to the strong sun angle and milder southern US, but the replenishing of supplies will likely be delayed a bit longer as theydrop below 1.0 Tcf. This should support prices when considering coming weather patterns and already tight supplies.
Selected Weather Images:
Week Long Cold Spell To Be Factored Into Storage Report March 12th, 11am EST There is no doubt a big weekly nat gas draw will released with T ...
Big Winter Storm Taking Shape As Eastern US Gets Another Day Of Mild Weather Today’s water vapor satellite image shows the weather player ...
Several Cold Blasts Will Lead To Hefty Weekly Draw The coming weekly draw should be well above normal due to very cold conditions settling in o ...
Sloppy Weather Pattern Over US March 5th – 945 am EST It’s a very sloppy weather pattern over the US with several weather fe ...
Chilly Conditions To Warm Late This Week Over Northern US…Several Cold Blasts To Follow March 4th 1230 pm EST A very sloppy weather patte ...
Cold Temperatures Pushed Deep Into The Plains, Spreading East Behind Winter Storm As a strong winter storms sweeps through the Southeast and Mi ...