US Natural Gas & Heating Weather Forecast

Numerous Weather Systems & Cool Blasts To Continue Over Midwest and Northeast Into Early May

Another Modest Build Expected For Weekly Nat Gas Storage Report Due To Active Weather

 

 

Wednesday 8:45 pm EDT

Forecast Summary: (April 24th – April 30th)   A slow moving weather system will track through the Great Lakes and Northeast over the coming days with reinforcing cool to hang on through the weekend as temperatures continue below normal.  The southern US and Plains will warm at times to near or slightly above normal, which will help provide some modest gains to supplies.  However, an even stronger trough of low pressure will bring a larger Spring storm early next week which should stall over much of the central and eastern US for much of the first week of May.  This will lead to another period of prolonged cooler than normal conditions and will keep supplies from being anything other than modest for the next several weekly builds.  The West will also see a period of cool conditions this week as Pacific storms move inland with valley rains and mountain snows.  Overall, the active and chilly pattern across much of the US will continue as nat gas and heating demand models finally realize they have been overplaying the coming warm and builds in supplies.

 

 

Thursday Weather:  A weak weather system and associated cool front will track into the Great Lakes with showers extending southern US.  A nice surge of milder condtions will push into the eastern US before the front arrives late this week and into the weekend.  Fresh Pacific storms will move inland over the West.

Thursday Weather: A weak weather system and associated cool front will track into the Great Lakes with areas of rain and pockets of snowfall.  Showers will extend along the front deep into the southern US. A nice surge of milder conditions will push into the eastern US before the front arrives late this week and into the weekend. Fresh Pacific storms will move inland over the West.

 

 

8 -14 Day Outlook

8-14 Day Outlook Summary: (May 1st – May 7th)  Another impressive cool blast will push over much of the central and eastern US during the outlook period and stall leading to widespread unsettled weather along with cooler than normal conditions.  As the week progresses, temperatures will warm over the Plains and western US as high pressure gradually builds in with near to above normal temperatures expected. There is potential for warmer conditions to push into the Midwest and Northeast late in the outlook.

 

8-14 Day Outlook:  Cooler than normal conditions will continue over much of the central and eastern US apart from the Plains as a large trough sets up with unsettled conditions.  The West will warm to near or above normal as high pressure builds.

8-14 Day Outlook: Cooler than normal conditions will continue over much of the central and eastern US apart from the Plains as a large trough sets up with unsettled conditions. The West will warm to near or above normal as high pressure builds.

 

8-14 Day Outlook Details:  (May 1st -  May 7th):     The latest forecast data continues to show an extensive trough of low pressure will set up during the first week of May over most of the central and eastern US.  This will lead to cooler than normal conditions for these regions for much of the outlook period, leading to stronger than normal nat gas and heating demand for many high use northern and Mid-Atlantic states.  The model data continues to struggle with the details of how this plays out but they are all on board with it playing out to some extent.  Over the western US and into the Plains, high pressure will build in and lead to near or above normal temperatures, which will allow builds in supplies to progress in these regions.    There is nothing to suggest the active and stormy weather pattern that has plagued the Midwest and eastern US all winter and now into Spring will change in the next few weeks.  This will keep builds from exceeding +100 Bcf for some time.  In fact, they will struggle to reach +50 to +75 Bcf at times in such a pattern, especially if the trough sets up over the eastern US as we expect during the outlook.  We have said the pattern would remain as such for quite some time and it continues to play out.  However, we caution there is data we are seeing that hints a big pattern change could be in the offing and that could bring more fun and surprises to the nat gas markets.

 

Natural Gas & Heating Demand (compared to normal):   MODERATE

 

Weather Market Threat: Days 1-15:  MODERATE – HIGH

 

Market Effect: (For April 24th):   The nat gas markets were little changed Wednesday ahead of the weekly storage report.  Not much new was gleaned from weather forecasts or price action and the storage report could again be a catalyst to price movement.    Temperatures over the southern US will be favorable for building supplies over the next week but not as much over the northern US as several cool blasts will sweep through into early May, especially towards the Ohio River Valley regions and the Northeast.   A fairly pronounced low pressure trough is still expected to set up over much of the central and eastern US next week with cooler than normal conditions for many regions including deep into the southern US.  The forecast models are all over the place with how much cool Canadian air gets tapped and this will lead to whip-sawing forecasts over the coming days.  However it plays out is somewhat irrelevant because its about the pattern, and it remains very active with plenty of opportunity for strong Spring storms as well as cool blasts.   We continue to view any significant sell offs as buying opportunities until it looks like several weeks of favorable weather conditions will lead to hefty +100 Bcf injections.  There will likely be a couple of them in May and early June, but it likely will be fewer than the markets would have been expecting going into the shoulder season, especially after all the hype of record injections.  There is nothing to suggest supplies will make up significant ground on the 1.0 Tcf deficit for the time being and that should keep a floor under the market.

 

Selected Weather Images:


 

 

The current slow moving storm will push into the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next few days with showers and isolated thunderstorms with even some snowflakes into the colder air approaching the Canaidan border. It's not a very cold front so only modestly chilly conditions are expected with it.  The image shows precip in inches shaded over a 12 hour period going into Friday morning as the slow moving weather system tracks across the northern US.

The current slow moving storm will push into the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next few days with showers and isolated thunderstorms with even some snowflakes into the colder air approaching the Canadian border. It’s not a very cold front so only modestly chilly conditions are expected with it. The image shows precip in inches shaded over a 12 hour period going into Friday morning as the slow moving weather system tracks across the northern US with showers extending into the Southeast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A fairly impressive cold blast will push into the Midwest, Northeast, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic late this weekend.  There are still details to work out as far as how intense and how far south the cold will advance.  The image shows temps off the ground a few thousand feet in Celsius Sunday morning.  Not only will the cooler than normal temps push across all of the northern US, it will also keep the building heat over Texas and southern Plains from pushing north, which will limit the the amount of "perfect" temperature states and keep builds to supplies in check.

A fairly impressive cold blast will push into the Midwest, Northeast, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic late this weekend. There are still details to work out as far as how intense and how far south the cold will advance. The image shows temps off the ground a few thousand feet in Celsius Sunday morning. Not only will the cooler than normal temps push across all of the northern US, it will also keep the building heat over Texas and southern Plains from pushing north, which will limit the the amount of “perfect” temperature states and keep builds to supplies in check.

 

No matter how the cold plays out with this weekend cool/cold blast temperatures will be much cooler than normal over many regions.  The latest GFS data brings lows of teens and 20s to the northern Plains and upper Midwest this Sunday morning with the cool to push into most of the eastern US early next week with reinforcing cool blasts continuing into the first week of May, possibly longer.

No matter how the cold plays out with this weekend cool/cold blast temperatures will be much cooler than normal over many regions. The latest GFS data brings lows of teens and 20s to the northern Plains and upper Midwest this Sunday morning with the cool to push into most of the eastern US early next week with reinforcing cool blasts continuing into the first week of May, possibly longer.

 

It can be easy to focus on the cool blasts sweeping across the Midwest and Northeast.  But because of the push of cool air into the central US a nice temp gradient will set up over the south-central US leading to showers and storms and will keep temperatures from warming significantly.  The image shows showers and storms next Monday as the cool front stalls with precipitation setting up over the south.

It can be easy to focus on the cool blasts sweeping across the Midwest and Northeast. But because of the push of cool air into the central US a nice temp gradient will set up over the south-central US leading to showers and storms and will keep temperatures from warming significantly. The image shows showers and storms next Monday as the cool front stalls with precipitation setting up over the south.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Both the EC and GFS forecast models are both very consistent with a much cooler than normal trough setting up the first several days of May.  The image shows a massive trough over much of the central and eastern US on May 2nd.  (EC left and GFS on the right)

Both the EC and GFS forecast models are both very consistent with a much cooler than normal trough setting up the first several days of May. The image shows a massive trough over much of the central and eastern US on May 2nd. (EC left and GFS on the right)

 

 

Say what is that big massive trough doing over the central and eastern US? Yep, as we were expecting the cool and active patter to continue it does so in impressive fashion with a hugh push of cool deep into the southern US.  This pattern won't bring any massive builds into supplies like the markest were sold the past few weeks.  The image shows temps a few thousand feet off the ground around May 1-2nd.  There will be heat bulding over the Southwest which will also lead to some cooling demand over the hotter desert areas.

Say what is that big massive trough doing over the central and eastern US? Yep, as we were expecting the cool and active pattern to continue it does so in impressive fashion with a huge push of cool deep into the southern US. This pattern won’t bring any massive builds into supplies like the markets were sold the past few weeks. The image shows temps a few thousand feet off the ground around May 1-2nd in Celsius. There will be heat building over the Southwest as well which will also lead to some cooling demand over the hotter desert areas.

 

 

 

How next weeks big trough plays out is still a bit tricky as far as how much colder than normal conditions will set up.  The right images show a fairly impressive cold anomaloes.  The images on the right show the cold to not be as impressive.  We believe it will play out closer to the upper right.

How next weeks big trough plays out is still a bit tricky as far as how much colder than normal conditions will set up. The image shows potential ways the pattern plays out around May 2nd.  The right images show fairly impressive cold anomalies for numerous regions. The images on the right show the cold to not be as impressive. We believe it will play out closer to the upper right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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