US Natural Gas & Heating Weather Forecast

A Weak Cool Front To Track Out Of The Northern Plains And Impact Midwest & Northeast Mid Week

 

 


Monday 1:30 am EDT

Forecast Summary: (April 21st – April 27th)  Mild temperatures over the Midwest and eastern US will gradually cool over the coming days as a weak weather system and cool front with showers and thunderstorms tracks out of the northern Plains.  The mid week cool down across the North will be brief as high pressure again builds back in Thursday through Saturday with another swing to warmer for the central and eastern US, while the West coast finally sees some Pacific storms and a cool down.  Additional cool blasts loom for the northern and eastern US late this coming weekend and possibly for a week long stretch to close out the month, especially over the northeast.  Simply put, there will be wildly swinging temperatures across much of the US over the next few weeks as Spring storms track across the northern US and high pressure builds into the Plains and Midwest for timely warm ups.  This will be enough to keep nat gas demand moderate to locally high over the Ohio Valley and Northeast with weak demand over the milder South and Plains.  

 

 

Monday Weather:  A weak cold front will move out of the Plains late in the day with showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Mild conditions over the eastern US will last another day or two before the cooler air arrives.  Fresh Pacific storms will move into the West coast over the coming days.

Monday Weather: A weak cold front will move out of the Plains late in the day with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mild conditions over the eastern US will last another day or two before the cooler air arrives. Fresh Pacific storms will move into the West coast over the coming days for some much needed valley rain and mountain snow.

 

 

8 -14 Day Outlook

8-14 Day Outlook Summary: (April 28th – May 4th)  Strong Spring storms will start the outlook period and impact all of the central and eastern US with exciting weather along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.  As the week progresses, temperatures will warm over the Plains as high pressure builds in while cool unsettled weather will persist over the Midwest and Northeast while keeping slightly higher than normal demand for nat gas. Storms will also impact the western US at times.

 

 

natural gas weather

8-14 Day Outlook: Plenty of active weather will play out over the US with numerous Spring storms tracking across the country. Chilly blasts will affect the Midwest and eastern US while high pressure will build into the Plains for above normal temperatures. There are many ways the pattern can out and the intensity of the cold over could be more impressive than the map depicts.

 

8-14 Day Outlook Details:  (April 28th -  May 4th):    The second week outlook weather pattern is a sloppy mess.  That doesn’t mean it’s not predictable.  It’s just you have to accept there will be some changes and model flip-flopping.  The way the cold blast plays out April 26-28th is dependent on how much cold air over southern Canada gets wrapped into a storm tracking across the northern US. Each run plays it out differently and you can pull your hair out getting whip-sawed by model runs.  The storm will grab colder Canadian air and drive it fairly deep through the Midwest and Northeast for cooler than normal conditions, just the extent of the cold is a bit uncertain.  Additional reinforcing cool blasts will follow and keep higher than normal nat gas and heating demand going in the these regions for the rest of the night.  Exactly by how much can still play out in a plethora of ways.  But the pattern is such that there will not be a huge build in supplies until a big ridge sets up over the central and eastern US.  There will be a nice ridge that builds into the Plains over the second half of the outlook and this could be the start of a spike in temperatures.  It just wont have much luck pushing very far into the northern and eastern US…for now.   The west coast will see some active weather return with a period of near normal to below normal temperatures, but not enough to drive huge demand.  We see a potentially exciting pattern change starting to take shape in the long range charts, but it may take many weeks before it sets up in any concrete fasshion.

 

Natural Gas & Heating Demand (compared to normal):   MODERATE

 

Weather Market Threat: Days 1-15:  MODERATE – HIGH

 

Market Effect: (For April 20th)  -  The nat gas markets spiked higher on the EIA weekly report of only a +24 Bcf gain in supplies, which was about +10 Bcf below analyst estimates.   That wasn’t a huge surprise as the report factored in three fairly impressive Spring storms, one of which brought decent rains and cooler conditions across all of the southern US.  There has yet to be follow through the past few months with any of these what seem like bullish reports.  Maybe this time will be different as chilly weather plays on over some important use states, leading to only meager builds in supplies over the next few weeks.  This has to have many rethinking their math, especially if just one or two of the weeks plays out colder or warmer in May, and there is no reason it won’t.   But there is also big signs showing up of a potentially significant pattern change.  One that will catch many off guard and could last for a while and impact how much of the summer plays out.  We realize there is a lot of buzz about the strengthening El Nino.  This generally tends to bring cooler weather to the central and eastern US and that’s what all the national forecasts are going with while being the obvious prediction that you would expect.  Except they may be missing a very important thing that leads us to believe it just as easily could play out much different, and in a more exciting way. More on this to come.  What’s important now is supplies are more than 1.0 Tcf below the 5 year average with only modest builds coming the next few weeks due to the active weather and timely cool blasts affecting the Great Lakes and eastern US.  This should support prices and any significant sell offs should be viewed as buying opportunities until it looks like several weeks of more favorable weather for +100 Bcf injections becomes certain.

 

Selected Weather Images:


 

natural gas weather

Temperatures Monday will be quite nice across much of the US with 70s and 80s for most regions. However, temperatures will cool Tuesday and Wednesday as a weather systems tracks across the northern US out of the Plains.

 

 

A weak weather system and cool blast will track out of the Plains Monday and toward the Ohio Valley and eventually the eastern US Tuesday.  Showers and thunderstorms will occur along the front with only a modest cool down behind it.

A weak weather system and cool blast will track out of the Plains Monday and toward the Ohio Valley and eventually the eastern US Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will occur along the front with only a modest cool down behind it.  This will end a brief warm up over the Northeast.

 

 

 

A weather system will push through the Midwest and eastern US mid week before temepratuers rebound again.  this will lead to cooler than normal conditons and higher than normal nat gas and heating demand.

A weather system will push through the Midwest and eastern US mid week before temperatures rebound again. This will lead to cooler than normal conditions and slightly higher than normal nat gas and heating demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The cool blast that pushes into the Midwest and eastern US next weekend after a several day warm up will depend on how a weather system taps into colder Canadian air. Some solutions do so aggressively (upper right), while others are not as much (upper left), with many in between.

 

 

The first week of May should be fairly cool still over some of the highest use nat gas states of the Ohio Valley and Midwest.   Over the Plains and much of the central US high pressure will bring a spike in temperatures and the need for some cooling demand.

The first week of May should be fairly cool still over some of the highest use nat gas states of the Ohio Valley and Midwest. Over the Plains and much of the central US high pressure will bring a spike in temperatures and the need for some cooling demand.  The image shows the potential ways the pattern plays out the first week of May with cool conditions hanging over the West and East and very warm in the middle.

 

 

After a couple cool blasts to start May there could be a big pattern change coming that could be the precursor of what plays out the rest of the summer.  Around May 5th high pressure builds out of the Southwest and into the Plains and portions of the Midwest with a big jump in temperatures.  This will set the stage for some for some surprises to come.  Note the cool conditions over the Northeast still hanging on while fresh cool blasts dropping down the Pac NW coast. Image shows temps a few thousand feet in Celsius. Cooling degrees will be starting to accumulate more apparently.

After a couple cool blasts to start May there could be a big pattern change coming that could be the precursor of what plays out the rest of the summer. Around May 5th high pressure builds out of the Southwest and into the Plains and portions of the Midwest with a big jump in temperatures. This will set the stage for some surprises to come. Note the cool conditions over the Northeast still hanging on while fresh cool blasts dropping down the Pac NW coast. Image shows temps a few thousand feet in Celsius. Cooling degrees will be starting to accumulate more apparently over the central US.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Latest News

Early next week the ridge will start to expand out into the Plains and Midwest.  But on cue a fresh weak system will knock it down over the Great Lakes and Northeast and keep conditions near or slightly cooler than normal.  Also note the big trough of low pressure moving into the western US.  Once that comes out and tracks into the central US it will lead to some exciting active weather.

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